Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week

State-run Chinese refiners likely to shun US crude amid trade tensions, opening opportunities for other Asian refiners to buy WTI Midland barrels. Renewable diesel premiums in ARA rise amid wider diesel market volatility, while outright SAF prices drop to record lows due to jet fuel decline.

1. State-run Chinese refiners likely to shun US crude amid trade tensions

What's happening? US crude buyers in Asia are looking to increase their purchases of WTI Midland barrels as a decline in Chinese demand is expected to lead to several VLCCs seeking new buyers at discounted rates. The trade tensions between the US and China have caused Chinese refiners to reduce their interest in US crude, creating opportunities for refiners other parts of Asia to acquire additional cargoes.

What's next? As China imposes significant tariffs on US goods, its crude imports from the US are expected to drop to zero, prompting Asian refiners to consider additional WTI Midland purchases. However, decisions will hinge on the economic viability of these purchases amid ongoing global economic uncertainties and the competitiveness of alternative crude grades from the Middle East.

Related topic: Trump and Commodities

2. ARA renewable diesel firm amid wider diesel market volatility

What's happening?Renewable diesel premiums in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub over the Northwest European fossil fuel diesel market have climbed since the US tariff announcement, while traditional diesel values plunge. RD FOB ARA premiums rose 5.28% on the week, having experienced marginal week-over-week gains since Feb. 27. Platts assessed the RD-A premium at $1,160.06/mt on April 9, up 5.99% on the week, while the RD-B premium was assessed at $1,134.31/mt, also 4.57% higher on week. Platts assessed ULSD 10ppm NWE at $587.75/mt on April 9, plummeting 15.25%, or $105.75/mt, on week, reaching its lowest level since August 2021.

What's next? This relationship with the underlying gasoil contract was to be expected, given sustained tightness in upstream feedstock markets and the fact that biofuels demand in Europe is largely driven by EU mandates. On April 9, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause to tariffs, the effect of which is yet to be observed in the diesel market.

3. Outright SAF prices drop to record lows

What's happening? Outright prices of European sustainable aviation fuel dropped to record lows due to a decline in jet fuel prices amid rising reciprocal tariffs between the US and China. The SAF differential to jet fuel rose to a two-month high, causing production margins to severely suffer as feedstocks also remained at historic highs.

What's next? The jet fuel market has already shown signs of recovery, following the announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, alongside a temporary tightening of supply in ARA. Additionally, vessels carrying bio-feedstocks exported from China to the US have been diverted to Europe amid the tariff announcement. Sources believe that lower used cooking oil prices will lead to a decline in bio-premiums and encourage better SAF margins ex-China, further supporting the flow of SAF to Europe.

Related infographic: EU alternative aviation fuel mandates highlight synthetic fuel supply concerns

4. Brazil's FCA gasoline market faces lukewarm demand

What's happening? Gasoline markets in Northeast Brazil have been seeing lukewarm demand since the start of 2025 due to reportedly weak gasoline sales at the pump. The Suape and Itaqui FCA gasoline markets are partly dependent on imports, making them vulnerable to the volatility of international markets. In Northeast Brazil, ethanol sales have increased due competitive pricing compared to gasoline over the past two years.

What's next? A potentially higher anhydrous ethanol blending mandate on gasoline this year has raised questions about the future demand for gasoline. Brazilian authorities said the blend increase could decrease gasoline imports by 760 million liters/year. Dynamics at the port of Itaqui could also shift in the coming months as decreasing river depths will likely disrupt gasoline supply in the Northern port of Belém.

5. European liquid epoxy resin prices on downtrend after peaking in March

What's happening? Prices of European liquid epoxy resins, widely used as coatings and adhesives for a range of industries, are seeing a downtrend due to a delayed restart of seasonal demand. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed LER DDP NWE at Eur2,520/mt on April 8, down by Eur80/mt since reaching a peak at Eur2,600/mt on March 18. Platts started weekly assessments of LER DDP Northwest Europe in December 2024. The EU launched an antidumping investigation into imports from China, Taiwan and Thailand in July 2024. Investigations supported prices until March, expected seasonal demand from the coating industry failed to materialize.

What's next? Sources have described the market to be in a "standstill" as market players are on wait-and-see mode even though liquid epoxy resins are exempted from the US tariffs announced on April 2. With a healthy supply of feedstocks, sources believe that any producer-led price increases may prove to be futile.

Reporting and analysis by Phil Vahn, Olly Wroe, Daniel Workman, Isabela Rocha, Bruno Magalhaes, Nate Zhang