Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week

S&P Global Commodity Insights editors are keeping an eye on developments in the talks between the US and Iran, and how the outcome might impact Tehran's crude oil exports. New trade and energy policies following the election of a new president in South Korea, the world's fourth-largest crude buyer, are also in focus. Meanwhile, the rare earths industry is gaining ground in Brazil, prompting industry players to scout for partners.

1. Iran nuclear deal could impact Tehran's oil exports

What's happening? The US and Iran are negotiating a nuclear deal that could significantly affect Tehran's crude exports. Iran currently exports approximately 1.5 million b/d of crude oil, but that volume could rise or fall depending on the outcome of talks. Negotiations have been ongoing since April, but the two countries disagree about whether Iran must stop all enrichment activities.

What's next? Should a deal be reached, Iranian crude exports could increase by 300,000-500,000 b/d within three to four months, and Iran could clear 40 million barrels of floating storage, allowing additional Iranian exports to crest for a month or two at 900,000 b/d, S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts say. Without sanctions, some Iranian barrels could shift from China to other markets like the Mediterranean, South Korea and Japan. However, if talks collapse, exports could fall by 400,000 b/d due to increased sanctions pressure.

2. South Korea's new president could explore new energy trade and diplomatic options

What's happening? South Korea President Lee Jae-myung, elected on June 3, aims to prioritize national interests and potentially explore diplomatic solutions to resume Iranian crude imports. South Korea, the world's fourth-largest crude buyer, has historically ranked among Asia's top buyers of Iranian crude.

What's next? Lee is expected to exercise pragmatic diplomacy to enhance flexibility in international oil trade to maintain strong relations with the US, Russia and China while respecting international sanctions and global responsibilities. Lee's administration is anticipated to negotiate exclusive trade arrangements and economic deals that could improve crude procurement for South Korea, which relies entirely on imports. The refining industry hopes for renewed access to Iranian crude, which previously traded at a discount to Qatar's Deodorized Field Condensate.

3. Brazil's rare earth projects seek partnerships to enhance energy security

What's happening? Brazil's rare earths sector is gaining momentum, with key industry players emphasizing the country's potential to become a vital player in the global energy transition. During the Brazil Lithium and Critical Minerals Summit held in Belo Horizonte on June 4-5, discussions underscored Brazil's abundant resources and the urgent need for strategic partnerships to explore potential reserves and ensure energy security. Brazil holds the second-largest global reserve of rare earths after China, essential for manufacturing high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. However, the supply chain for these minerals is currently concentrated in China, prompting calls for diversification.

What's next? Geopolitical tensions surrounding rare earths are driving Brazilian companies to seek partnerships. Mining companies, such as Serra Verde, which commenced rare earth mining operations in 2024 in Minaçu, Goiás, and Australian firms like Viridis Mining and Meteoric Resources, are keen on exploring ionic clay deposits in Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais. As Brazil advances in hard rock and ionic clay drilling, there is significant mineralization potential in regions like Jequié, Bahia, which could position Brazil as a leader in the rare earth sector. The National Mining Agency has identified 27 research projects under development by 17 companies across seven states, with financial support from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development aimed at mobilizing Real 5 billion ($893 million) for business expansion and research plans.

4. European liquid epoxy resin prices decline amid competitive offers

What's happening? Epoxy resin prices in Northwest Europe returned to 2024 levels in late May. Platts, part of Commodity Insights, last assessed LER DDP NWE at Eur2,250/mt on June 3, following a steady decline since peaking at Eur2,600/mt on March 18. The European Commission's antidumping duties, which came into effect in February on imports from China, Taiwan and Thailand, had limited impact on prices, sources said.

What's next? Competitive offers continue to come to Europe from markets exempted from antidumping duties, such as South Korea, India and Saudi Arabia, essentially making the protection of European producers "a never-ending game," according to some sources. The outlook is exacerbated by the absence of an uptick in seasonal demand from the construction sector during the warmer months.

5. China exports 15% more citric acid in early 2025 as South Asian demand soars

What's happening? China's citric acid exports from January to April rose 646,070 mt, 15% higher compared to the same period in 2024, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Atlas showed. Exports were driven by higher demand from South Asia, with India and Pakistan imports growing 34% and 109%, respectively, amid rising demand from the food and beverage sectors. Citric acid is widely used as a food acidulant to adjust acidity, enhance flavor and preserve products. Despite the volume surge, export prices averaged $667/mt in April, according to customs data, down 2% year over year, reflecting oversupply and stiff domestic competition.

What's next? Citric acid demand in South Asia is projected to grow 6.6% annually through 2029, supported by an 8.8% yearly expansion in the region's food and beverage industry, according to Commodity Insights analysts. With limited local production, South Asian countries are to remain reliant on imports. However, export prices are expected to remain relatively stable due to abundant supplies and intense domestic competition.

Reporting and analysis by Kate Winston, Phil Vahn, Anne Barbosa, Nate Zhang and Mark Chooi Kim Weng