ENERGY ASIA: ASEAN may become net LNG importer by early-2030s -- ConocoPhillips CEO

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is set to become a net LNG importer by the early-2030s as demand for the fuel grows at a compounded annual growth rate of 3%, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said at an industry event.

The outlook is "quite remarkable" for gas and as a company, ConocoPhillips is investing "more heavily" into the LNG segment and trying to move some of the low-priced gas from the US to markets in Europe and the ASEAN, Lance said during a panel at the Energy Asia 2025 conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on June 18.

"We see a bright future for gas and LNG," Lance said, adding that the company was going to develop "a lot more" of such projects.

There are enough natural gas reserves in the US to meet demand, Lance said.

"The supply curve we believe in North America is probably a century of gas at somewhere between $3.50/MMBtu and $4/MMBtu," Lance said.

That is a large natural gas resource when one combines the north of the border and goes into the Canadian province, Lance said.

"We're blessed with a huge resource of gas, and there's going to be plenty to satisfy the power demand needs with growing AI, energy exports and power demand generally growing in the United States," Lance said.

However, some bottlenecks exist, Lance noted.

"The issue we'll have in the United States is probably the buildout of the infrastructure," he said, noting that there is inadequate infrastructure to transport the gas from where it is being produced to the coast, and to various locations where data centers will be built.

Upcoming supply, contract tenures

Lance was unfazed about a raft of LNG supply coming online in 2028-29.

According to Lance, nearly 30 million mt/year LNG may be added by then.

"But I remind people, that's a 400 million mt/year market today. The last time they had 30 million mt come into the market was [when it was] about a 200-million-mt market," Lance said.

Low prices had persisted for about six months at the time to be followed by double-digit gas prices thereafter, Lance said. "So, I think in the short term, markets were pretty good."

"The market is going to have to be there to pay for the liquefaction, the shipping, and the regas. So, you need about a $5/MMBtu margin above the Henry Hub pricing to get the pricing to go build the infrastructure for regas."

On the topic of duration of LNG supply contracts, Lance said the market was seeing a mixed bag regarding their tenures.

"We saw some deals in Qatar for multiple decades." However, customers want some flexibility -- a shorter term. There is also a desire for destination flexibility, but it may be the developer or purchaser or seller of LNG wanting that flexibility, Lance said.

It is going to be required to access the arbitrage that's going to occur throughout all the importing regions globally, Lance said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the JKM, the benchmark price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, for August at $14.404/MMBtu on June 18, up 3.27% day on day, reflecting supply concerns due to the Israel-Iran conflict.